There is growing evidence of a BTC price breakout, but for now, resistance at $ 50,000 remains under control.
Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the new week above known levels below $ 50,000, but the anticipation for major disruptions to begin is growing.
After dropping more than $ 50,000 in new winnings, BTC / USD leaves traders to guess until the end when it comes to short-term stock prices, including closing times.
It seems unlikely that after just two weeks, the bounce pattern seen in both 2013 and 2017 will repeat itself, but all indicators in the chain are showing an upward trend.
With 90% of the supply of bitcoin officially depleted, Cointelegraph will take a look at what investors might expect this week.
Just the same just different?
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show Sunday saw another rally to $ 50,000 and ultimately couldn’t last longer than that.
1-hour candlestick chart BTC / USD (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
This story is well known and should not surprise experienced market participants.
“53 thousand is my cash flow as well. Let’s turn around and we’ll get back to business, ”Analyst William Clemente. repetition…
While Bitcoin remains well below the $ 1 trillion in assets under $ 53,000, other opinions are not worried about the unexpected sideways market movement in the fourth quarter.
As far as the popular TechDev Twitter account goes, Bitcoin still seems to be “in tune” with previous years of the bull cycle. the same, similar until the fourth quarter of last year – just before BTC / USD started to rise.
From my point of view, there are many reasons for the price reduction here, as it will be before the final of the first stage at the end of 2020. pic.twitter.com/62AptElE2G
– TechDev (@ TechDev_52) December 13, 2021
Elsewhere, PlanB, the creator of BTC pricing models, is also optimistic. He uploaded a presentation of one of his predictions, claiming that Bitcoin is actually in a consolidation phase that has lasted most of the year.
“Patience is the key,” he said. more…
Bitcoin movement chart versus BTC / USD chart. Source: PlanB / Twitter To rejuvenate or not to rejuvenate?
The macro trigger this week will be the Federal Reserve and the subsequent announcement of the status of its asset purchase program.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could provide valuable insight into the future of quantitative easing (QE) and the rate of decline in asset purchases.
The Fed inevitably has to balance between an inflationary environment and the continued risk of a coronavirus outbreak when it comes to credibility of its policies.
As Cointelegraph reports, some say the crypto market meeting is likely to be more turbulent than last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which saw the highest inflation in the United States since 1982.
“With no objection from other Fed officials, despite the uncertainty surrounding the Omicron option, the Fed will announce a gradual acceleration in quantitative easing over the next week, with a $ 30 billion decline in January (to $ 60 billion in purchases). and another $ 30 billion in February, “banking giant ING said in a statement last week.
“This means that the Fed will end the program in early March, leaving the Federal Reserve with $ 8.8 billion in assets on its balance sheet, more than double the pre-March level of the pandemic. 1 year 2020! ”
Fed balance chart. Source: Federal Reserve System.
According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, big changes to QE are effectively changing the availability of easy money and have a dramatic effect on risky assets like Bitcoin.
Analyst Cole Garner: Bitcoin is “ready”
It’s no secret that on-chain indicators remain strong despite spot prices dropping nearly 40% below their all-time highs.
Now more key figures have arrived and are giving analyst Cole Garner some serious confidence in the green days to come.
One a series of posts on Twitter Over the weekend, the renowned statistician drew some of his charts, which have now turned into a clear uptrend.
“I think BTC is ready,” he summed up the outlook for BTC / USD.
“All of a sudden, all of my favorite early indicators are long and strong.”
Signals come mainly from OTC trading points. The BTC balances of these institutions increased in the past week in line with the purchasing activity between clients.
While the over-the-counter market has not always followed the rise in prices, Garner still sees it as a “strong alpha.”
“One of the best leading indicators I’ve ever seen. The more you think about it, the more intuitive it becomes, ”he wrote.
“He’s gone and completely upside down.”
Annotated chart of BTC / USD balance versus OTC. Source: Cole Garner / Twitter
Another example is the combined volume delta (CVD) for bitcoin whales, which slopes upward in what Garner calls an unmistakable bullish sign.
The CVD is used to determine the relationship between buyers and sellers during market movements, and the data shows that buying interest remains just as strong at current levels.
“This has become my most important indicator at this stage of growth,” he commented.
“This is not a lie.”
Annotated chart of the dependence of BTC / USD on the CVD of whales. Source: Cole Garner / Twitter
Not everyone is convinced yet, and reviews indicate that the rise in OTC prices may be just a brief divergence in the overall downtrend. Others are holding on to a narrative that calls for Bitcoin to cease to exist in 2021 and gradually solidify on its way back to an uptrend next year.
Bitcoin ETFs Increase Their Reserves
Continuing with the previous trend, institutional investors are showing no signs of leaving BTC as a “high risk” asset in the current environment.
Amid over-the-counter hesitation, new evidence suggests that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are growing rapidly and there is a need for it.
Purpose Bitcoin ETF, Canada’s first licensed spot ETF product for Bitcoin, increased its holdings by 4,342 BTC in December, up 17.6%.
Now that Purpose is 28,974 BTC, it shows what many have argued about for a year – that Bitcoin’s impact on institutions is a tidal wave that will have to be serviced sooner or later.
Bitcoin ETF Holding assignment chart. Source: Coinglass
“It’s just ETF,” said Lex Moskovsky, CEO of Moskovsky Capital. commented on…
Meanwhile, the US abandonment of the spot Bitcoin ETF remains controversial in the market as industry officials and even lawmakers pressure regulators to agree with their position.
Can anyone explain to me why Fidelity Investments, one of America’s most famous investment advisors, had to come to Canada to offer ETFs, or why physically hosted crypto ETFs are safe and legal in Germany, Brazil, Singapore and other countries. but for some reason not in the USA. United States of America? Brian Brooks, CEO of BitFury, said last week while testifying to the Senate Financial Services Committee.
“Emotional roller coaster ride”
Maybe the market just doesn’t know how to think.
Related: 2 Key Indicators For Bitcoin Trading Show Low BTC Price
If the Crypto Fear and Greed Index can serve as a benchmark, changes in Bitcoin price activity could now change sentiment by as little as a few thousand dollars up or down.
Index of crypto fear and greed. Source: alternate.me
Fear and greed have returned to the spotlight in the past few weeks thanks to the unexpected nature of BTC’s decline.
Last week, it fell to its lowest level since July 16 out of 100, or “extreme fear.” It then nearly doubled to 28/100 in just one day, then returned to 16 at the end of the week and then climbed to 27.
At that time, the BTC / USD rate was in the range of about $ 4,000.
“With this reach, my Twitter has become an emotional roller coaster ride,” says analyst William Clemente. For a child along with a chart showing the psychological reaction to recent price movements.
The chart shows BTC / USD. Source: William Clemente / Twitter
TechDev meanwhile notification This opinion remains lower than at the beginning of the year when Bitcoin opened at $ 29,000.
Likewise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key indicator that identifies the overbought and oversold phases of an asset at a given price.
This masks a “big” bullish divergence, TechDev added.