Bitcoin fails to regain $ 50,000 and is showing a bearish signal
Bitcoin price failed to recover and recorded further losses across the board. This could have caused the cops even more trouble.
Options market analysis
Bitcoin price is currently around $ 48,000, which is about 27% below ATH ($ 69,000). Over the past few weeks, options traders have implemented various hedging strategies to protect their accounts from market dips. This coming Friday, December 17th, Deribit will expire about $ 630 million in bitcoin contracts. Worst-case expiration – if the price stays below $ 50,000. A call option with a strike price of 60,000 has the highest open interest at 1005 contracts. Option traders have already sold many calls at this strike price. It looks like you are considering 60k as resistance at the moment.
Source: Deribit
The realized volatility is still higher than the implied volatility. It looks like options traders are still unsure about the V-shaped retracement.
Source: Laevitas.ch
The 48 hour change in TOP of open interest (OI) shows that demand for put options increased in December.
Source: Laevitas.ch
Technical analysis
Weekly RSI shows no positive signals in the medium term. It fell below 50, which suggests that the bears are stronger in the market. According to historical data, whenever the index falls below 50, BTC sees a downtrend or consolidation phase.
It is hoped that this figure will recover and return to around 50.
BTC / USDT weekly chart | Source: TradingView
Not all is well on the daily chart either. The long-term uptrend line formed after the March 2020 Covid crash has been lost. The OBV indicator is showing the same signal as the crash in May: uncertainty in financial markets due to high inflation rates in the US and Europe could cause some volatility in the coming weeks.
BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
On-chain analysis
The SOPR of short-term holders (a profit and loss ratio that measures the total market profit and loss for each trade) shows that these investors are selling at a loss. This is a sign of fear for high-end buyers who tend to be sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
Source: CryptoQuant
